Weekly Tactical Pick | Improving operating parameters to drive higher earnings

At the current market price of Rs 149 a share, NTPC is trading at 1.1 times its price to book value of FY19 estimates, which very attractive

The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) recently released draft norms for the power sector reducing the plant availability factor (PAF) threshold to 83 percent as against 85 percent earlier. Additionally, the draft also says that the plant shut down for the maintenance would not be included for the purpose of calculation of the PAF, which typically reduce the PAF by about 6-7 percent. Relaxation in the PAF would mean the companies would be able to avail incentives that are offered in terms of higher return on equity (RoE) on the regulated equity. Regulated equity is the net worth that is deployed in the operational power generation projects, which avail fixed RoE.

Key beneficiary

This brings good news for NTPC that is sitting on regulated equity close to Rs 51,000 crore. Moreover, the company and shareholders get huge big relief as the regulator kept the RoE unchanged. This was a big overhang for its stock as investors were fearing that in the falling interest rate scenario the regulator would cut the RoE offered on the regulated equity. While this would improve the operational efficiencies and return ratios, NTPC should also benefit because of the improving earnings visibility. It has expressed its intention to buy a few power plant thus utilising its cash in the books. This is in addition to its plans to add another 20000 MW of capacity in the long run including 5000 MW each in the year 2019 and 2020.

Attractive valuations

Among utilities, NTPC is the most stable company having extensive experience and strong balance sheet. Moreover, at the current market price of Rs 149 a share, it is trading at 1.1 times its price to book value of FY19 estimates, which very attractive.  The stock offers a close to 4 percent dividend yield. Out of 28 analysts (based on consensus) tracking the stock 26 of them have a buy and outperformer rating on the stock with an average target price of Rs 191 a share, which is about 28 per cent higher compared to its current market price.

Source: https://www .moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/weekly-tactical-pick-improving-operating-parameters-to-drive-higher-earnings-valuations-for-ntpc-3314221.html  

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Focus shifts to 2019 elections: Over 20 growth-oriented stocks to add to your portfolio

Morgan Stanley continues to back growth at a reasonable price and believes the way to construct portfolio is to buy stocks of companies with the highest delta in return on capital

Assembly election results for three key states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan — threw a big surprise for D-Street with BJP losing all three states. However, bigger surprise was the rally seen after the results were out.

Most experts, who Moneycontrol spoke to before the results were announced, were of the view that if BJP closes with 0-3 tally, there would be a high probability that Nifty would head towards 10,100-levels. However, a three-day rally actually put the index above 10,700.

The only setback on December 11 morning for market was resignation of Urijit Patel that was announced an evening before. While he cited personal reasons for the decision, but it comes in the backdrop of the RBI-government differences over several issues. The announcement induces volatility on D-Street for some time.

Though, appointment of Shaktikanta Das as the new governor calmed nerves, and emergence of one single party with a clear majority boosted sentiment eventually pushing Sensex by about 1,000 points in just three trading sessions.

The journey from here on could be a rocky one as domestic and foreign investors will shift their focus to General Elections scheduled for May 2019. The outcome of the 2019 elections will determine the policy direction for next 5 years.

Well, a 0-3 score of BJP is not a positive sign but history suggested that investors vote differently in assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is no direct co-relation between the outcome of these ‘semi-final’ state polls and the Lok Sabha polls (2004, 2009 and 2014 election results point toward the same).

But, what does this tell about the investment strategy? Investors should not put too much focus on the assembly election results and use dips to get into fundamentally strong stocks, and at the same time, reduce their beta play in the portfolio to safeguard from volatility.

“Going forward, the hangover of state election results will recede, we expect the focus to revert to fundamentals, albeit with continued elevated volatility. Overall, macros have eased out for India in the last two months with the correction in crude oil prices,” Motilal Oswal said in a report.

“From an earnings perspective, we expect domestic cyclical driven by financials to drive earnings in 2HFY19, taking over from global cyclical which were driving earnings growth lately,” it said.

The domestic brokerage firm further added that their portfolio construction is biased towards largecaps and also stocks with strong earnings visibility, resilient to macro risks and reasonable valuations. Key stocks are ICICI Bank, HDFC, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, HUL, Titan Company, Infosys, L&T, RBL Bank, TeamLease, IGL, Indian Hotels, M&M Financial Services.

Key risk for markets would be if the domestic equity investors, who started to invest on the back of Modi's win in May 2014, start to reduce new investments, highlights CLSA in a note.

Also, an analysis conducted by the global investment bank highlights competitive populism by the BJP and the Congress, with farm loan waivers, unemployment grants, and farmer handouts. This is good for consumption but bad for a capex cycle recovery.

Both BJP and Congress had promised farm-loan waivers of up to Rs 2,00,000 per farmer in the states that just went to polls. In addition, Congress had promised pensions and loan subsidies/removal of GST on agricultural equipment to farmers.

“This sets the tone for poll promises ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Implementation of such poll promises would reduce the government’s fund availability for infrastructure even as the private sector is yet to step up infrastructure investments,” added the CLSA note.

The global investment bank added that consumption plays, particularly rural ones, should benefit from such handouts. The related top ideas are M&M, Colgate Palmolive India, Crompton Consumer, ITC, TTK Prestige, Zee Entertainment, Eicher Motors and Maruti Suzuki.

Policy making will be important to chart the course for markets in 2019, feel experts. As soon as the political noise will go down, chatter about growth and earnings will pick up. One key pain point highlighted in assembly elections was the rural distress. Hence, there could be an enhanced focus on the rural and agricultural economy.

Strategists at Morgan Stanley feel that the political cycle (measured as policy certainty) is likely to turn down, growth is likely move higher, and credit growth seems to be at the beginning of a new cycle. They also believe terms of trade are improving, rates are in a bit of a pause before continuing their rise, and profit margins appear to be at the start of a new up cycle.

Morgan Stanley continues to back growth at a reasonable price and believes the way to construct portfolio is to buy stocks of companies with the highest delta in return on capital.

They expect market performance to broaden and hence also like midcaps where the forward growth is not reflecting share price performance.

Source: https://www. moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/focus-shifts-to-2019-elections-over-20-growth-oriented-stocks-to-add-to-your-portfolio-3286171.html

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Year-end bonanza? These 25 stocks are trading below their 5-year avg PE

The general rule is that when a stock is trading below its 5-year PE, it usually indicates sluggish movement in price, which is further linked to earnings potential

The Indian market rebounded in November after having corrected significantly in September and October. The bounceback helped Sensex reclaim 36,000 and pushed Nifty over 10,900, but there is still plenty of action that one can expect from individual stocks.

Half the stocks in the Nifty are trading below their 5-year average price/earnings multiple, which suggests there is still some value left in them.

Stocks that are trading below their 5-year average PE include Bajaj Finserv, HPCL, Eicher Motors, JSW Steel, Indiabulls Housing Finance, HCL Technologies, GAIL India, Infosys, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Cipla, and NTPC, among others.

As many as 9 of these 25 stocks more than doubled investors' wealth in the last five years -- Yes Bank, HDFC, IOC, BPCL, Indiabulls Housing Finance, JSW Steel, Eicher Motors, HPCL, and Bajaj Finserv.

PE ratio or PE multiple is a widely-used valuation tool that helps in screening a stock on a relative basis.

The stock market has remained volatile for most of 2018, despite Nifty climbing to a record high of 11,760 earlier this year. The rise in the index was supported by a handful of stocks, as others lacked momentum.

Both Sensex and Nifty slipped after hitting record highs, but the pain was much worse in small and mid-cap indices, which saw double-digit falls from their respective highs.

The BSE Midcap index has slipped 17 percent this year, while the BSE Smallcap index has fallen 28 percent. In comparison, the Sensex is down just 7 percent from its 2018 high.

The Nifty recovered a bit in November, but only a few names were responsible for it. But it is a known truth that consolidation offers an opportunity to buy quality names that are currently trading below their 5-year average PE.

Generally, when a company is trading below its 5-year average PE, it is perceived to be undervalued. But to qualify as a stock worth buying, it should be backed by superiority in business fundamentals, experts suggest.

But, is the valuation methodology enough for investors to hit the buy button? Well, maybe not, suggest experts. The general rule is that when a stock is trading below its 5-year PE, it usually indicates sluggish movement in price, which is further linked to earnings potential.

“The PE multiple is a derivation of factors like earnings growth, operating margin, the fundamental outlook of the company prevailing in the market that decides a future prospectus,” Dinesh Rohira, Founder & CEO, 5nance.com told Moneycontrol.

“In general, it indicates the stock is not able to garner earnings potential or company is at bad phase on fundamentally. When there is no earnings visibility, investors will be unwilling to pay price or premium for such a company that in turn halts the stock price,” he said.

Rohira further added that to get a clear understanding, an investor should compare PE of a company with its peers. One should not take PE at its face value.

To make an investment call, it requires a holistic approach and disciplined study from investors which usually boils down to fundamental aspects of a company. Although, most of the stocks which are trading below their 5-year average have also corrected in double digits from their highs but investors should do their own research before pressing the buy button.

We believe PE should not be looked in isolation, Atish Matlawala, Sr Analyst, SSJ Finance & Securities said. A company with higher growth potential could see increase buying from investors which could in turn boost PE multiple of the stock, but the trouble is many of these companies may not grow at the same pace as they grew in the last five years, he explained.

“Sector like NBFC and auto may see their growth taper down as the cost of funds increases. Having said that there are few companies which we believe can give better returns in the medium to long-term perspective. These companies are HCL Technologies, Infosys, HDFC, Tata Steel and Vedanta,” Matlawala said.

He added that average PE will decline with declining growth prospects. It is therefore important to look at PEG ratio to make investment decisions. For the metal sector, one must look at EV/EBITDA ratio to select companies.

Source: https://www. moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/year-end-bonanza-these-25-stocks-are-trading-below-their-5-year-avg-pe-3245121.html 

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL By TradeIndia Research

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL



GOLD DEC FUTURE

R2–32000
R1-31900
S1-31700
S2-31600






SILVER DEC FUTURE

R2 –39000
R1- 38800
S1-38400
S2-38200



CRUDE OIL NOV FUTURE

R2 –4710
R1-4680
S1-4620
S2-4590



COPPER NOV FUTURE

R2 –442
R1-439.50
S1-434.50
S2-431

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Stocks in the news: Tata Motors, L&T, Canara Bank, Vedanta, HEG, Syndicate Bank, Va Tech Wabag

Kalpataru Power Transmission | United Spirits | KEI Industries | HDFC | Marico | Bosch and Indowind Energy are stocks which are in the news today.

Results on Thursday: HDFC, Marico, HPCL, DLF, eClerx Services, Johnson Controls, SH Kelkar, Oriental Carbon, MAS Financial Services, Mahindra Logistics, Dishman Carbogen Amcis, Intense Technologies, Advanced Enzyme Technologies, Garware Technical Fibres, Laurus Labs, Adlabs Entertainment, Fairchem Speciality, Reliance Home Finance, Apollo Micro Systems, KIOCL,

Results on Thursday: Marathon Nextgen Realty, Parag Milk Foods, MEP Infrastructure, Ganges Securities, Avadh Sugar, Dhunseri Petrochem, IIFL Holdings, Thomas Cook, Sarla Performance Fibers, Zenith Birla (India), Welspun Investments, Berger Paints, Alkyl Amines Chemicals, Aarti Industries, Maharashtra Seamless, Vimal Oil & Foods, Zuari Agro Chemicals, Zuari Global,

Results on Thursday: Shekhawati Poly-Yarn, Trent, Sundaram Finance, Somany Ceramics, Selan Exploration Technology, Zodiac JRD- MKJ, Cera Sanitaryware, Essel Propack, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, GeeCee Ventures, Hikal, Amrutanjan Health Care, Vesuvius India, Triveni Turbine, Welspun Corp, Next Mediaworks, Orient Green Power Company, Firstsource Solutions, India Glycols,

Results on Thursday: Greaves Cotton, Godrej Properties, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers, Clariant Chemicals, Elecon Engineering, Tata Communications, Grindwell Norton, Ador Welding, Dwarikesh Sugar, VST Industries, Voltamp Transformers, Morepen Laboratories, Paramount Communications, Huhtamaki PPL, Jindal Drilling, Gujarat Industries Power, Amber Enterprises India,

Results on Thursday: Arvind, Tanla Solutions, Hindustan Construction Company, Apar Industries, Taj GVK Hotels, Ramgopal Polytex, Gujarat Lease Financing, Apcotex Industries, SRF, Lyka Labs, ICRA, Bajaj Electricals, Hinduja Ventures, Century Enka.

L&T Q2: Consolidated profit climbs over 22 percent to Rs 2,230 crore versus Rs 1,820 crore; revenue jumps 21.3 percent to Rs 32,080 crore versus Rs 26,446.8 crore; EBITDA surges 27 percent to Rs 3,770.5 crore versus Rs 2,962.2 crore; margin expands to 11.8 percent versus 11.2 percent YoY.

L&T Guidance: Company expects 10-12 percent growth in order inflow, 12-15 percent in revenue in FY19.

Tata Motors Q2: Consolidated loss at Rs 1,048.8 crore versus profit at Rs 2,482.8 crore; revenue rises 2.5 percent to Rs 72,112 crore versus Rs 70,373.4 crore; EBITDA falls 28 percent to Rs 6,257.6 crore versus Rs 8,692.5 crore and margin contracts to 8.7 percent versus 12.4 percent YoY.

JLR Q2: Revenue down 11 percent to 5,635 million pound YoY, loss at 101 million pound. Cuts capex in FY19 & FY20 by 500 million pound to 4 billion pound.

Vedanta Q2: Consolidated profit plunges 39 percent to Rs 1,900 crore versus Rs 2,915 crore; revenue rises 5.2 percent to Rs 22,705 crore versus Rs 21,590 crore; EBITDA drops 8 percent to Rs 5,208 crore versus Rs 5,670 crore; margin contracts to 22.9 percent versus 26.3 percent YoY.

Canara Bank Q2: Profit rises to Rs 299.5 crore versus Rs 260.18 crore; net interest income increases to Rs 3,281.3 crore versus Rs 2,783.4 crore YoY; gross NPA improves to 10.56 percent against 11.05 percent and net NPA to 6.54 percent against 6.91 percent QoQ.

Adani Power Q2: Consolidated profit jumps 22 percent to Rs 387 crore versus Rs 317 crore; revenue rises 16.6 percent to Rs 7,181.5 crore versus Rs 6,159.1 crore; EBITDA increases 9.7 percent to Rs 2,330.3 crore versus Rs 2,124.8 crore; margin at 32.45 percent versus 34.5 percent YoY.

KEI Industries Q2: Profit rises to Rs 41.4 crore versus Rs 28.5 crore; revenue jumps to Rs 996.8 crore versus Rs 753.8 crore YoY.

Matrimony.com Q2: Consolidated profit falls to Rs 13.35 crore versus Rs 19.16 crore; revenue rises to Rs 87.6 crore versus Rs 83.6 crore YoY.

Narayana Hrudayalaya Q2: Consolidated profit declines to Rs 13.6 crore versus Rs 16.5 crore; revenue increases to Rs 711.3 crore versus Rs 559.2 crore YoY.

Indostar Capital Finance Q2: Consolidated profit slips to Rs 64 crore versus Rs 69.5 crore; revenue jumps to Rs 319.8 crore versus Rs 199.5 crore YoY.

Ganesha Ecosphere Q2: Profit jumps to Rs 13.50 crore versus Rs 7.3 crore; revenue surges to Rs 262.5 crore versus Rs 168.7 crore YoY.

Shreyas Shipping & Logistics Q2: Profit declines to Rs 5.14 crore versus Rs 19.70 crore; revenue rises to Rs 156.43 crore versus Rs 123.5 crore YoY.

Navneet Education Q2: Profit falls to Rs 29 crore versus Rs 126.3 crore; revenue declines to Rs 263.5 crore versus Rs 670 crore YoY.

Minda Corporation Q2: Consolidated profit rises to Rs 44.6 crore versus Rs 42 crore; revenue increases to Rs 773.3 crore versus Rs 655 crore YoY.

Gandhi Special Tubes Q2: Profit increases to Rs 10 crore versus Rs 8.7 crore; revenue rises to Rs 33.6 crore versus Rs 29.8 crore YoY.

United Spirits Q2: Profit jumps to Rs 258.7 crore versus Rs 153.1 crore; revenue spikes to Rs 7,128 crore versus Rs 6,214.6 crore YoY.

Future Lifestyle Fashions Q2: Profit rises to Rs 25.5 crore versus Rs 23.4 crore; revenue jumps to Rs 1,222.4 crore versus Rs 1,021.7 crore YoY.

Kalpataru Power Transmission Q2: Profit surges to Rs 91.4 crore versus Rs 71.5 crore; revenue rises to Rs 1,574 crore versus Rs 1,222.8 crore YoY.

Honeywell Automation Q2: Profit climbs to Rs 97.4 crore versus Rs 73.73 crore; revenue rises to Rs 782.3 crore versus Rs 673.2 crore YoY.

LG Balakrishnan Q2: Profit rises to Rs 28 crore versus Rs 23.66 crore; revenue increases to Rs 427 crore versus Rs 350.7 crore YoY.

Balaji Amines Q2: Profit soars to Rs 31 crore versus Rs 29.2 crore; revenue rises to Rs 216.5 crore versus Rs 201.2 crore YoY.

Schneider Electric Infrastructure Q2: Loss at Rs 27.2 crore versus loss at Rs 10.92 crore; revenue rises to Rs 319 crore versus Rs 269.7 crore YoY.

Castrol India Q2: Profit falls to Rs 150.4 crore versus Rs 178.2 crore; revenue rises to Rs 926.9 crore versus Rs 861.4 crore YoY.

Syndicate Bank Q2: Loss at Rs 1,542.5 crore versus profit of Rs 105.24 crore; net interest income falls to Rs 1,572.3 crore versus Rs 1,649.5 crore YoY; gross NPA at 12.98 percent versus 12.59 percent; net NPA at 6.83 percent versus 6.64 percent QoQ.

Adani Green Energy Q2: Loss at Rs 186.9 crore versus loss of Rs 26.87 crore; revenue jumps to Rs 448.6 crore versus Rs 167.68 crore YoY.

Jagran Prakashan Q2: Profit declines to Rs 44.9 crore versus Rs 72.2 crore; revenue slips to Rs 553.4 crore versus Rs 566.5 crore YoY.

Dhampur Sugar Mills Q2: Profit drops to Rs 28.4 crore versus Rs 36.15 crore; revenue declines to Rs 532.8 crore versus Rs 802 crore YoY.

Blue Dart Express Q2: Profit falls to Rs 21.3 crore versus Rs 41.4 crore; revenue rises to Rs 798 crore versus Rs 703 crore YoY.

Jayaswal Neco Q2: Loss at Rs 86.23 crore versus loss of Rs 70.37 crore; revenue rises to Rs 1,166.5 crore versus Rs 832.44 crore YoY.

HEG Q2: Profit jumps multi-fold to Rs 888.9 crore versus Rs 113.66 crore; revenue surges to Rs 1,794 crore versus Rs 409.5 crore YoY.

Emkay Global Q2: Profit declines to Rs 4.34 crore versus Rs 6.25 crore; revenue rises to Rs 38.3 crore versus Rs 36.15 crore YoY.

Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Q2: Profit rises to Rs 1.7 crore versus Rs 0.8 crore; revenue increases to Rs 346 crore versus Rs 326 crore YoY.

Coal India OFS: Non-retail portion oversubscribed 106 percent; 3.96 crore shares to be available as part of OFS on November 1 for retail investors.

IL&FS Transportation Networks and IL&FS Engineering: IL&FS Group submitted report on progress & the way forward to NCLT. Resolutions can involve capital infusion, divestment & debt recast. Board expects to complete resolution process in stages over next 6-9 months.

Shriram EPC: Company bags an order worth Rs 236 crore from Drinking Water & Sanitation Department, Government of Jharkhand.

JSW Energy: CARE upgraded the ratings on the long term bank facilities of subsidiary Raj WestPower Limited to AA - / Stable from A+ / Stable.

United Bank of India: Board approved raising of equity capital, in one or more tranches, for an amount not exceeding Rs 3,000 crore by way of preferential allotment of equity shares.

Eros International Media: Company in association with Mythri Movie Makers will release the much awaited, mystical thriller 'Savyasachi'.

GHCL: India Ratings & Research assigned company a long term issuer rating of A1+ with outlook stable, for issuance of proposed Non-convertible debenture (NCO) of Rs 300 crore, which shall be utilized for the purpose of refinancing of the existing debt, meeting long term working capital requirements and funding other purpose in the normal course of business of the company.

Motherson Sumi Systems: CRISIL upgraded long term rating of the company to AA+/Stable from AA/Positive and reaffirmed short term rating to A1+.

Eicher Motors: Due to the strike, the loss of production for the month of September and October 2018, is 25,000 motorcycles.

Karnataka Bank: Bank revises its MCLR and reduces interest rates on its retail schemes.

Va Tech Wabag secures Rs 1,000 crore worth order in the Middle East

Bulk Deals

Marine Electrical: Vora Pravin Pritesh sold 2,12,000 shares of the company at Rs 80.62 per share on the NSE.

Strides Pharma Science: MSD India Fund sold 8 lakh shares of the company at Rs 412.01 per share on the NSE.

Analyst or Board Meet/Briefings

Bhansali Engineering Polymers: Company's officials will be meeting Equipoise Investment Fund and 801 AXA Mutual Fund on November 1.

Majestic Research Services and Solutions: Board meeting is scheduled on November 14 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Cerebra Integrated Technologies: Board meeting is scheduled on November 10 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Kernex Microsystems: Board meeting is scheduled on November 10 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Swelect Energy Systems: Board meeting is scheduled on November 12 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Dredging Corporation: Board meeting is scheduled on November 12 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Polyplex Corporation: Board meeting is scheduled on November 14 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Hotel Leelaventure: Board meeting is scheduled on November 12 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

NESCO: Board meeting is scheduled on November 13 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

DHFL: Board meeting is scheduled on November 21 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

MRF: Board meeting is scheduled on November 8 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018.

Satin Creditcare Network: Board meeting is scheduled on November 14 to consider financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended on September 2018; and issuance of non-convertible debenture for upto INR equivalent of $30 million through private placement.

Mahindra Holidays: Company's officials will be meeting DHFL Pramerica Mutual Fund on November 2.

TCS: Company's officials will be participating in Morgan Stanley Seventeen Annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore on November 28.

Tube Investments: Conference call for analysts and investors is scheduled on November 5.

Can Fin Homes: Analyst/institutional investors meeting is arranged by Investec Capital Services (India) with S K Hota, Managing Director and Atanu Bagchi, CFO of the company on November 1.

City Union Bank: Bank will be participating in a conference call organised by Ambit Capital on November 2.

Bosch: Board meeting is scheduled to be held on November 5 to consider unaudited financial results for the second quarter and half year ended September 2018, and also the proposal for buyback of the equity shares of the company.

Indowind Energy: Board meeting is scheduled to be held on November 8 to consider unaudited financial results for the second quarter and half year ended September 2018, and also the proposal for buyback of the equity shares of the company.

Source:  https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/stocks-in-the-news-tata-motors-lt-canara-bank-vedanta-heg-syndicate-bank-va-tech-wabag-3113931.html

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

MCX Free Tips

MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL



GOLD DEC FUTURE

R2–32100
R1-32000
S1-31800
S2-31700






SILVER DEC FUTURE

R2 –38750
R1- 38550
S1-38150
S2-37950


CRUDE OIL NOV FUTURE

R2 –4980
R1-4950
S1-4900
S2-4870



COPPER NOV FUTURE

R2 –443
R1-440.50
S1-435.50
S2-433

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL Update By TradeIndia Research Date 30/10/2018

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL


GOLD DEC FUTURE

R2–32100
R1-32000
S1-31800
S2-31700





SILVER DEC FUTURE

R2 –38800
R1- 38800
S1-38200
S2-38000


CRUDE OIL NOV FUTURE

R2 –5020
R1-4980
S1-4920
S2-4890



COPPER NOV FUTURE

R2 –450
R1-447.50
S1-441.50
S2-439

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Fund managers bought 310 beaten-down stocks in Q2; time to go bottom fishing?

Most analysts say investors should consider buying beaten-down stocks, but with a time horizon of 1-2 years.

Benchmark indices have fallen more than 10 percent from their highs, and for the year, Indian market has turned negative but the big carnage has been seen in individual stocks. Most fund managers are using the opportunity to buy quality stocks.

For the quarter ended September, fund managers increased their stake in as many as 310 stocks which have a market capitalisation of more than Rs 1,000 crore and have fallen up to 70 percent so far in 2018.

Stocks in which they raised stake include Manpasand Beverages, Infibeam Avenues, Simplex Infrastructure, IIFL Holdings, JM Financial, Navkar Corporation, Indian Bank, Symphony, Kajaria Ceramics, Dilip Buildcon, Greenply Industries.

Most analysts agree that investors should look at the beaten-down stocks for their portfolio but the time horizon should now be 1-2 years. Picking the right stock will be more important because not every stock will qualify as a sound investment.

While it may be difficult to call a bottom, for those investing with a one-year horizon or longer, it is a good time for bottom fishing. Looking for beaten-down stocks is a good starting point, but ultimately a stock-buying decision has to be based on valuation vs fundamentals.

In general, we believe that in aggregate, the buys made during this period should deliver good returns over a one to the two-year horizon.

Asset base of mutual funds rose to over Rs 24 lakh crore in the July-September quarter, a 14 percent surge from the year-ago period, despite sell off seen in equity market. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped more than 2,000 points in September and a similar downfall is expected by the end of October.

The asset base of the industry, comprising 41 players, was Rs 23.4 lakh crore in the preceding three months, showing a growth of just 2.5 percent on a quarterly basis, according to the data by Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFzi).

However, tracking weakness in equity market, MF AUM dipped slightly in September but equity funds continued to see inflows. Liquid or money market funds saw outflows to the tune of Rs 2.11 lakh crore in September as compared to inflows of Rs 1.71 lakh crore in August.

Despite market volatility and the credit event, inflows of Rs 11,172 crore in equity funds is very encouraging. It looks like fund managers are using the opportunity to increase allocation towards quality stocks.

Equity markets are very volatile due lot of internal and external factors and in such a volatile environment it is not easy to stick to the same strategy. We as a fund house are very selective in terms of picking sectors and avoiding certain sectors.

So it is better to look fundamentally strong & growing companies, where you want to invest rather than taking a call on the overall market,” he said.

Sticking to quality, fund managers reduced their stake in as many as 270 companies which have fallen up to 80 percent in 2018 which include names like PC Jeweller, Jet Airways, SREI Infra, HCC, BEML, Dewan Housing, Syndicate Bank, Tata Motors, Motilal Oswal, Apex Frozen, Union Bank of India, Bank of India, Avanti Feeds, The South India Bank.

Mutual Funds have been getting consistent flows on a monthly basis despite steep correction in September and October. But, experts fear that if the selling pressure continues, the SIP flows might get impacted.

The SIP flows may start getting impacted if the markets continue to remain depressed. Generally, small investors do not have the appetite to see negative returns. If the market corrections are fast and quick, the investors continue to stay in the markets because they do not fully feel the impact of those corrections

But, if you look at the current markets, the weakness is continuing for the better part of this year. There are no immediate triggers for the markets to bounce back. In such scenario, the fresh SIP creation would slow down and then some of the investors could also stop their SIPs.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/fund-managers-bought-310-beaten-down-stocks-in-q2-time-to-go-bottom-fishing-3096891.html

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Rupee fall brings back IT, pharma sectors in favour for mutual funds

The rupee has fallen over 15 percent against the dollar so far this year

A sharp slide in rupee has prompted mutual fund managers to bet on export-oriented sectors such as information technology and pharmaceuticals.

The rupee has fallen over 15 percent against the dollar so far this year and is currently trading at 73.43 against the dollar. The currency is down 8.3 percent year on year, which means the depreciation is at a five-year high.

Krishna Sanghavi, head-equities, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund believes companies in export-oriented sectors will benefit from the rupee's depreciation. “We are positive on IT and pharma because of improving business outlook and benefits of rupee depreciation," he says.

Echoing Sanghavi’s view, LIC Mutual Fund’s Chief Investment Officer Sarvana Kumar says, “Pharma and IT companies are likely to report better earnings and an improvement in their profit margins.”

LIC Mutual Fund is sitting on a lot of cash in its equity funds as it feels the upcoming five state assembly elections have given rise to some measure of uncertainty in the market. It is now gradually deploying its cash, taking into account stock valuations and growth, Kumar said.

Fund managers said IT companies having a large exposure to the US will benefit the most, while pharma companies will benefit as exports account for more than 50 percent of their revenues.

Going forward, hedging strategies will be a deciding factor for these companies to make profits on a falling rupee.

ICRA expects the domestic IT services sector to register a compounded annual growth rate of 9-12 percent from 2018 to 2021.

According to the rating agency, there were early signs of improvement in demand for the sector.

Also, given that that the trade deficit and the current account deficit or CAD are rising, the rupee's weakness is beneficial.

The trade deficit hit $157 billion in 2017-18, while the CAD rose to 1.9 percent of the gross domestic product or GDP.

India's third and fourth largest information technology firms reported results this week, and both seem to be recovering from client-specific issues that are slowing growth.

While HCL Technologies reported second-quarter results above analyst estimates, helped by growth across verticals. The Noida-based company's rupee revenue was up 7.1 percent at Rs 14,861 crore, while constant currency growth was 3 percent during the quarter.

On the other hand, Wipro’s IT services revenues rose 5 percent to Rs 14,377.3 crore, 2.8 percent after adjusting for a strong dollar.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mutual-funds/mf-wrap-rupee-fall-brings-back-it-pharma-sectors-in-favour-for-mutual-funds-3092981.html

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