Market Update

Monday, December 3, 2018

Bulls dominated D-Street in 7 of the last 10 Decembers; will 2018 be any different?

The maximum gain was seen in 2008 when the Sensex rallied 9.1 percent. The second biggest gain was in 2017, when it rose 3.7 percent

The Sensex rallied about 5 percent in November to reclaim 36,000 and the Nifty reclaimed 10,800. If the momentum remains intact, the Nifty will likely hit 11,000 in the December series. Anecdotal evidence suggests the rally is here to stay as bulls have remained in control of D-Street in December in 7 out of the last 10 years.

The maximum gain was seen in 2008 when the Sensex rallied 9.1 percent. The second biggest gain was in 2017, when it rose 3.7 percent. The third highest gain -- 3.3 percent -- was recorded in 2010.

Bears have managed to take control of D-Street in December just three times in the last 10 years. The Sensex fell a little over 6 percent in 2011, 3.7 percent in 2014, and 0.20 percent in 2015.

There could be some volatility due to the US Fed policy meeting, RBI monetary policy meeting, as well as the outcome of state elections, but with foreign investors back on D-Street, some of the macro headwinds have now become tailwinds.

"Nifty should be able to reclaim 11,000 in December series. RBI’s monetary policy on December 5 and state election results will be key to market movements. Our expectation is RBI’s policy will maintain status quo on rate hikes, which will be a breather," Dharmesh Kant – Head, Retail Research, IndiaNivesh Securities told Moneycontrol.

"Inflation is benign and a fall in crude oil prices along with a rise in rupee has turned macro headwinds into tailwinds for now," he said.

Encouraged by falling crude oil prices and a sharp appreciation in rupee, overseas investors have pumped Rs 12,260 crore in the Indian capital markets in November, making it the highest inflow in 10 months.

History suggests overseas investors have been mostly buyers in December in the last 10 years. Foreign investors have pumped money in Indian markets in December six times in the last 10 years. They poured Rs 24,000 crore in 2012, followed by Rs 15,000 crore in 2013. They had invested Rs 10,000 crore in 2009.

The foreign investors have been net sellers four times in December in the last ten years. In 2016 they pulled out more than Rs 8,000 crore followed by Rs 4,747 crore in 2017, whereas they withdrew less than Rs 1,000 crore in 2014 and 2011.

Technical Outlook

The Nifty outlook remains constructive as long as crude trades around $60/bbl and we do not see depreciation in the rupee against the US dollar.

Further volatility in the market could be caused by the outcome of state elections results, US Fed meeting as well as MPC meeting which is due this week. But, given the bounceback in November, it looks like the rally is here to stay.

“The near-term oscillators are positive. However, the medium-term oscillators display mixed signals, while the long-term oscillators of the index are in sell mode. Therefore, we treat the ongoing rise a countertrend rally with positive implications towards the range of 10,950–11,100,” Arun Kumar, Market Strategist, Reliance Securities told Moneycontrol.

“The USDINR breached the psychological zone of 70 and has given strong directional signals from various oscillators. It may attempt to appreciate towards 68.50–69.20 in near to medium term,” he said.

Source: https://www .moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/bulls-dominated-d-street-in-7-of-the-last-10-decembers-will-2018-be-any-different-3242971.html

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Saturday, December 1, 2018

What is a good credit score and how you can maintain it to stay on the right side

A low credit score is a symptom of habitual defaults and an indicator of financial indiscipline.

Your credit score is a number ranging between 300 and 900 and is derived from your credit report. Credit reports are created by credit bureaus like Experian and CIBIL. Your credit score and report are used to make decisions about whether or not you get access to a number of things. These include:

1. Lenders - who use this to evaluate your loan and credit card applications. Not only can your applications be processed faster with a high credit score, but also, lenders have started providing loans at lower interest rates.

2. Mobile phone service providers - who set postpaid limits after all post-paid services are a form of credit extended to you.

3. Insurance companies – who decide whether you can get lower premiums should you choose to buy any policy.

4. Employment screening – Many employers have started reviewing credit scores and reports as part of an employee’s background check. A low credit score is a symptom of habitual defaults and an indicator of financial indiscipline. It must be said, that no one can claim to go through life without going through periods of financial stress, so if you have missed payments for a short period and you have returned to paying on time later this will not pose a problem.

Given that your ability to buy a home, emergency medical expenses (via a loan or insurance reimbursement) and even the ability to secure employment are dependent on this three digit number, the next question is what is considered a “good” score.

First, it is important to know that all credit bureaus have the same data since 2015.

Hence, all credit bureaus can provide you with an accurate score.

Second, all the bureaus have a credit score that ranges between 300 and 900. If you do not have any loans or credit card you will not have a credit report and hence, a credit score.

Lastly, while all the credit bureaus have the same data, their scoring algorithms differ slightly and hence, each credit bureau will have a slightly different benchmark of what is considered a “good” score.

In Experian’s case, a credit score of 780 or more is considered a good score. In CIBIL’s case, it is 750 or more.

Here are few tips to help you maintain a high credit score:

1. Always, always, always… pay your dues on time. Late payments are the biggest factor that affects your credit score.

2. Don’t use too much credit. Make sure your monthly outflows are less than 50% of your net monthly income. People who have increasing credit utilisation are viewed negatively by lenders.

3. Check your eligibility before applying for credit on lending marketplaces. A number of “hard” enquiries (a credit search is added to your report every time you apply for credit) within a few months can be a reason for your score reducing and your loan getting rejected. When you check your free credit score and eligibility on lending marketplaces this is called a “soft” search and doesn’t affect your credit score or credit eligibility.

Given how important your credit score and report can be and the fact that it is easily available and that it can be tracked free and forever - there’s no reason you shouldn’t check your credit score.

Source: https://www .moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/what-is-a-good-credit-score-and-how-you-can-maintain-it-to-stay-on-the-right-side-3238601.html

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Friday, November 30, 2018

Foreign moolah flows into Indian market in Nov; 44 FII-heavy stocks rally 10-50%

FIIs which turned net sellers in Indian Capital markets in August, September and October pulling out nearly Rs 60,000 crore in the last three months turned net buyers in November.

After pulling out funds from Indian capital markets for three consecutive months in August, September and October, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned buyers in November.

They have poured in a little over Rs 10,000 crore (equity and Debt) in Indian markets so far this month as macro concerns receded due to fall in crude oil prices and a sharp appreciation in rupee against the dollar which went below Rs 70/USD in trade on Thursday.

“With the sharp decline in crude prices, almost 30 percent in 7 weeks, the key macro headwind for India has been addressed and the same is reflected in Indian rupee (appreciating over 4.6% in November, which is the strongest recovery in Asian FX),” Pankaj Pandey, Head-Research, ICICIdirect.com told Moneycontrol.

“With crude price outlook fading on excess supply concerns and the US Fed adopting a slightly dovish tone, strong EM stories have started to make a comeback. India is stacked well in current set up and FIIs are likely to renew their focus on Indian markets,” he said.

Pandey further added that India continues to offer one of the highest positive real rates (accretive Bond Inflows) and equity market has also cooled off falling more than 10 percent from its record high in January 2018 and looking more compelling based on forward growth projections.

US Federal Reserve's dovish outlook also helped money to flow into riskier assets. One big factor that will act in favour of India is the earnings growth. HSBC analysts said MSCI India EPS (earnings per share) growth consensus expectations — of 18.8 percent in 2018 and 24 percent in 2019 — pegs India as one of the fastest growing markets across the region.

FIIs turning net buyers in the Indian market also boosted some of the FII-heavy stocks. As many as 44 stocks in the S&P BSE 500 index, where FIIs hold more than 10 percent stake, have rallied 10-50% so far this month.

Stocks that witnessed rally include Adani Transmission (up 50%), followed by PNB Housing (up 28%), PC Jeweller (up 2%), Pidilite Industries (up 22%), BPCL (up 21%), Future Consumer (up 19%), VIP Industries (up 18%), and Kajaria Ceramics (up 17%). The table shows top 21 stocks from the list:

“It is indeed pleasant to see FIIs turning net buyers of Indian equities in November and the hope is that the trend would continue. As of now, data seems to suggest that a large part of the inflows is on the account of emerging market ETF flows of which India, too, is a beneficiary,” Shibani Kurian, Sr. Vice President and Head of Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company (KMAMC) told Moneycontrol.

“In a scenario wherein risks are emerging to the global growth outlook, India does stand out with fairly stable expectations on GDP growth. Further, post the recent correction in the markets, valuations are not as stretched as before,” she said.

Source : https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/foreign-moolah-flows-into-indian-market-in-nov-44-fii-heavy-stocks-rally-10-50-3233351.html

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Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Technical Views | Top buy & sell ideas by Ashwani Gujral, Sudarshan Sukhani

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com suggests buying L&T Finance Holdings with stop loss at Rs 137 and target of Rs 142, ICICI Bank with stop loss at Rs 353 and target of Rs 363 and TCS with stop loss at Rs 1950 and target of Rs 2030.

The firm Asian cues and buying in technology stocks helped the market close higher on November 28 but the Nifty50's failure to hold on to its 200-DMA due to profit booking at higher levels indicated that traders turned cautious ahead of expiry of November futures & options contracts on November 30.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 203.81 points at 35,716.95 and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 43.30 points to 10,728.90, but the broader markets underperformed frontliners with the Nifty Midcap index falling nearly a percent on weak breadth.

About three shares declined for every share rising on the NSE. The Nifty IT index rallied 2.9 percent while other major sectoral indices either closed flat or in a negative terrain.

The profit booking at higher levels, and selling & muted trade in major sectors indicated that the market internal picture remained very weak, experts said, adding one can avoid creating fresh longs.

According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,699.8, followed by 10,670.8. If the index starts moving upwards, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,757.8 and then 10,786.8.

The Nifty Bank index closed at 26,457.95, up 14.85 points on Wednesday. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 26,390.1, followed by 26,322.3. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 26,555.3, followed by 26,652.7.

Ashwani Gujral of ashwanigujral.com

Buy IndusInd Bank with a stop loss of Rs 1600, target of Rs 1665

Buy L&T Finance Holdings with a stop loss of Rs 136, target of Rs 148

Buy HDFC with a stop loss of Rs 1900, target of Rs 2010

Buy Mindtree with a stop loss of Rs 865, target of Rs 900

Buy Apollo Tyres with a stop loss of Rs 230, target of Rs 245

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com

Buy L&T Finance Holdings with stop loss at Rs 137 and target of Rs 142

Buy ICICI Bank with stop loss at Rs 353 and target of Rs 363

Buy TCS with stop loss at Rs 1950 and target of Rs 2030

Buy Dabur India with stop loss at Rs 405 and target of Rs 425

Buy HDFC Bank with stop loss at Rs 2070 and target of Rs 2150

Mitessh Thakkar of mitesshthakkar.com

Buy Havells India with a stop loss of Rs 662 and target of Rs 685

Buy ICICI Bank with a stop loss of Rs 354 and target of Rs 374

Buy L&T Finance Holdings with a stop loss of Rs 135.5 and target of Rs 145

Buy Reliance Industries with a stop loss of Rs 1139 and target of Rs 1184

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/technical-views-top-buy-sell-ideas-by-ashwani-gujral-sudarshan-sukhani-mitessh-thakkar-for-short-term-3-3232091.html

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Sunday, November 25, 2018

26/11 Mumbai Attack Anniversary: When LeT trained Ajmal Kasab on 'how to fish'

The sea training, as per the book written by historian Saroj Kumar Rath, also included 'how to fish', something that made Kasab think that 'he had got a job and he could earn a respectable living'.

Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) gave "sea training" to 26/11 terror attack convict Ajmal Kasab in the high seas of "Karachi", revealed a new book "Fragile Frontiers: The Secret History of Mumbai Terror Attacks".

The sea training, as per the book written by historian Saroj Kumar Rath, also included "how to fish", something that made Kasab think that "he had got a job and he could earn a respectable living".

"He (Kasab) was not informed by the LeT why he was being prepared as a mariner and as a fishermen," quoted the book from what Kasab told during his interrogation.

According to the book, fearing a leak, the sea route assault plan was kept secret by the top LeT commanders -- Hafiz Saeed, Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi, Abu Hamza and others -- until November 2008.

It also said that before the D-day, the LeT tried to send attackers to Mumbai twice, but "failed on both occasions".

"In September 2008, the boat carrying terrorists hit a rock in the sea and the attackers almost drowned before their handlers rescued them. The other failed attempt was on 7 November 2008, when an alarmed captain of an Indian boat refused to surrender to the LeT and fled," it added.

The book, in one of its essay titled 'Ajmal Kasab: The LeT side of the story', recorded that the 2-year training of the recruits for the 26/11 attacks was a "joint responsibility of the LeT and the ISI".

"Each terrorist had to undergo a series of training and indoctrination sessions organized by the LeT. All the 10 terrorists recruited for the Mumbai attacks had received four stages of training and after that, received sea training as well," read the book.

As part of the sea training the recruits were taught how to read maps, how to measure the depth of the sea, how to use GPS for the sea route, how to use the nets of fishermen and how to operate a ship.

"They were also trained on how to use a fisherman's net just to mislead the Indian navy personnel in case of an enquiry."

Also, other than the sea training, the four stage training received by the ten terrorists under the LeT command was: Daura-e-Sufa (20 Days' Preliminary Training), Daura-e-Ama (21 Days' Combat Course), Daura-e-Khaas (75 Days' Advanced Combat Course), Daura-e-Ribat (30 Days' Training on Intelligence Agencies).

"Kasab received (Daura-e-Khaas) training during May-July 2008. Skills like how to open and close Kalashnikovs, firing of a gun... and how to survive 60 hours without food and still climb a mountain with a heavy load were taught.

"The Mumbai attacks continued for 62 hours and crossing the LoC in Kashmir would take 60 hours as well," it said.

Besides delving into the interrogation and confession report of Kasab, the book, also tried to answer significant questions like "Why do young boys like Kasab become terrorists in Pakistan? What is the root cause of terrorism? Or what motivates them to follow a violent lifestyle?".

Kasab, the lone terrorist captured alive after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, was hanged at Yerawada jail in Pune on November 21, 2012 after the then-president Pranab Mukherjee rejected his mercy petition.

Published by Routledge India, "Fragile Frontiers: The Secret History of Mumbai Terror Attacks", priced at Rs 995, other than offering a lucid and graphic account of the ill-fated day also traces the changing dynamics of terror in South Asia.

Source: https:// www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/current-affairs-trends/definition-of-kilogram-changed-after-130-years-3192901.html

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